Analysts at Nomura offered a preview of the forthcoming US data.
"Advance goods trade balance: The goods trade balance was -$68.8bn in January, a wider deficit than in December, driven by soft goods exports and a steady increase in imports. In February, container data at ports suggest imports may have pulled back after many months of increase while exports increased steadily. Thus, we expect goods trade balance of -$65.1bn, slight narrowing of the deficit from January (Consensus: -$66.4bn).
Case-Shiller home price index: Home prices in urban areas increased 0.93% m-o-m in December. The annual pace picked up notably, registering 5.58% y-o-y, following an uptick in November. Firm consumer fundamentals for the housing market, coupled with lean supply of housing units, likely continued to exert upward pressure on housing prices in January. However, some of the potential increase may have been due to residual seasonality, which causes relatively rapid increase in the fall/winter months. Consensus expects an increase of 5.60% y-o-y.
Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence: This consumer confidence index rose further to 114.8 in February from 111.6 in January on improvement in the assessment of future expectations. Incoming data suggest consumer sentiment remained elevated in March. Steady pace of job creation and gains in equity markets may have contributed to continued optimism. Moreover, the preliminary report of the Michigan survey indicates that consumer sentiment in March improved slightly in March on a pick-up in consumers’ assessment of current conditions. Thus, we expect the consumer confidence index to have remained elevated at 115.0 in March (Consensus: 114.0)."
Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7613, down -0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7620 and low at 0.7613.
AUD/USD has been consolidated within a 40 pip range and has remained robust vs the dollar's attempts of a comeback overnight. In the absence of a catalyst, the market continued to weigh up the risks associated with the GOP's inability to agree in the healthcare bill and what those implications are for fiscal policy markets had priced into the dollar.
Wall Street drops amid raising concerns over Trump's agenda
For the day ahead the RBA’s Debelle gives a speech on the global FX code of conduct in Sydney. The rest of the week has a number Fed speakers which may offer a catalyst one way or another for the greenback. Meanwhile, the week-old downward correction persists, the 0.7600 area still vulnerable according to analysts at Westpac.
AUD/USD 1-3 month:
Imre Speizer, analyst at Westpac suggested that AUD/USD is at risk of testing 0.7800 during the next few weeks as USD longs are pared:
"Longer term we expect to see it slightly lower to around 0.7600. A steady hand from the Fed in June plus an optimistic RBA should limit downside on AUD/USD during the next few months. Further out, though, the underlying AUD trend should be gently lower, as growing bulk commodity supply gradually cools the 2016 price surge. Iron ore should be back under $80/tonne by June, with further (modest) declines likely in H2 2017. (21 March)."
Forex today: dollar fights back, Wall Street buying GOP's tax reforms noise
Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the technical picture is neutral-to-bearish:
"The price remained below a bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators retreated within bearish territory after testing their mid-lines, now lacking directional strength, indicating no buying interest around the Aussie. Still the pair can recover some ground, particularly if risk aversion continues easing during the upcoming Asian session, although gains beyond 0.7700 are not likely. A break below 0.7600, on the other hand, should favor additional declines towards the 0.7520/40 price zone."
Data source: FX Street
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