HotForex Forex News

09:49 Nigeria may soon join the OPEC oil output cut deal

An article carried by Daily Trust on Tuesday, highlighted that Nigeria is closer to join the oil output cut deal reached by the OPEC, following the continuous recovery of the country’s crude oil production.

Key Quotes:

“Nigeria, which is exempt from the current OPEC cuts, alongside Libya and Iran, has witnessed improvement in oil production to its highest level in more than a year.

Oil production tumbled to 30-year lows of around 1.2m barrels per day (b/d) in 2016, from 2.2m b/d, as attacks on oil facilities in the Niger Delta increased.

But following extensive engagement with militants by the Federal Government, as well as the return of the Forcados terminal, a key Nigerian crude oil pipeline, production has lifted export towards the 2 million b/d mark and is expected to increase even further.

With production now near its full capacity of 2.2m b/d, Nigeria could be asked to join the OPEC cut deal.”


09:40 US: Labor market tighter - AmpGFX

The labor market is probably the most important indicator underpinning the Fed’s forecast for further policy tightening and Fed members including Yellen are now describing the labor market as tight, notes the analysis team at Amplifying Global FX Capital.

Key Quotes

“With many other economic indicators suggesting growth may be stalling, the onus will be even more on the labor data to sustain the Fed’s policy tightening regime.”

“Payrolls growth has slowed this year, averaging 121K over the last three months to May.  However, this slowdown may be indicative of a tightening labor market, with less suitable skilled workers to fill jobs.”

“Unemployment has fallen to 4.3%, below the Fed’s downwardly revised estimate of neutral unemployment of 4.6%.  Weekly unemployment claims 4-week moving average, at 245K in the 4-weeks to 16 June, is still arguably trending lower, although up from a low of 236K in the 4-weeks to 19 May.  The monthly payrolls data are due next week.”

 


09:36 AUD/USD surges through 0.76 handle to hit fresh one-week high

The AUD/USD pair continued gaining traction for the third consecutive session and has now jumped to one-week highs near 0.7610 region.

A mildly weaker US Dollar, led by subdued action around the US Treasury bond yields helped the pair to build last week's sharp recovery move from the very important 200-day SMA. Moreover, Monday's disappointing US durable goods orders data also gave investors reason to be cautious about buying the greenback and remained supportive of the pair's up-move for the third consecutive session.

Adding to this, positive trading sentiment surrounding commodity space provided an additional boost to commodity-linked currencies and further collaborated to the pair's move back above the 0.7600 handle. 

It, however, remains to be seen if the pair is able to attract any follow through traction amid expectations of hawkish scripts from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and the Fed Chair Janet Yellen, scheduled to speak later during the day.

On the economic data front, the release of Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index would also be looked upon for some trading impetus during early NA session.

In the meantime, the RBA Assistant Governor Debelle’s speech, due during the European session, would be looked upon for fresh insight over the RBA's monetary policy outlook and should also influence sentiment surrounding the major.

Technical levels to watch

Momentum beyond 0.7615 level could get extended back towards two-month highs resistance near 0.7630-35 region, above which the pair seems all set to head towards testing 0.7675-80 horizontal resistance before aiming to reclaim the 0.7700 handle.

On the flip side, 0.7585-80 region now seems to protect immediate downside, which if broken would turn the pair vulnerable to break below mid-0.7500s intermediate support and challenge 200-day SMA important support near 0.7530 region.


09:24 EUR futures: a top in place?

Monday’s preliminary figures for open interest in the EUR futures markets showed traders slightly trimmed their positions by more than 1K contracts to 381,683 contracts vs. Friday’s final figures.

Interim resistance above 1.1200

The current inability of EUR/USD to surpass the low-1.1200s on a more sustainable fashion and the somewhat stabilized performance of open interest in past sessions allow us to infer that a potential top could be in place in the near term.

The view is reinforced by the lack of relevant news or events around spot, which continues to be driven by USD-dynamics and US yields.


09:21 Forex Today: Antipodeans firmer in Asia, ECB Draghi, BOE Carney in focus

A quiet Asian affair this Tuesday, with most major currencies trading in tight ranges, as cautious trades intensify ahead of the a mix of central bankers’ speeches. Amongst the Asia-pac currencies, the yen was weakest amid better risk sentiment and increased hopes of Fed tightening its policy sooner than later. USD/JPY hit fresh one-month highs and popped briefly above 112 handle, before reversing to now trade around 111.80.

Meanwhile, the Antipodeans emerged the top gainers in Asia, as the US dollar reversed a part of yesterday’s rebound, while higher oil prices also supported the commodity-currencies.

Attention now turns towards a spate of central banking events that are likely to dominate the fx space today, with the speech by the ECB President Draghi expected to kick-off the European session, followed by the RBA Assistant Governor Debelle’s speech. The BOE’s Financial Stability report and Governor Carney’s speech will also steal the limelight in Europe.

 In the NA session, the US CB consumer confidence data combined with Fed Chair Yellen’s speech will wrap up an eventful trading session today.

Main topics in Asia

NZ: Trade surplus down to NZD103m - Rabobank

Today we saw NZ trade data, where exports did well but imports surged, taking the trade surplus down to just NZD103m from a prior NZD536m.

China’s Li: Will not resort to massive stimulus measures

Additional headlines hitting the wires from the Chinese PM Li’s speech delivered during the opening ceremony of "Summer Davos" Forum in Dalian.

Quarterly Flow of Funds report: BOJ keeps snapping up bonds

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) published its quarterly Flow of Funds report earlier this Tuesday, highlighting that the Japanese central bank’s pace of buying in the government debt has slowed dramatically…

China’s industrial profits increase 16.7% in May

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported the latest Chinese industrial profits data for the month of May, noting that the industrial profits climbed 16.7% y/y last month versus +14% y/y seen last.

US Comm Dept.: Canadian softwood will face duties up to 30.88%

The US Commerce Department came out with a statement earlier today, via Reuters, announcing duties on the softwood lumber exports from Canada.

Key Focus ahead

UK: FSR in focus today - TDS

The Bank of England releases its Financial Stability Report, which is followed by a press conference by Governor Carney at 11am BST.

US: Consumer confidence may ebb - AmpGFX

Today, in the US, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence report is released and analysts at Amplifying Global FX Capital suggest that we may be on the cusp of some correction in sentiment surveys. 

US consumer confidence and Fed speak amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

Today is another quiet day in terms of data releases with the Fed's Williams (non-voter, neutral) speaking this morning and later today it is time for US consumer confidence for June will be the only key events, suggests analysis team at Danske Bank.

EUR/USD looks to regain 1.1200 ahead of Draghi, Yellen

Having found some support near 1.1175 region, the EUR/USD pair has embarked upon a minor-recovery mode, as the bulls look to regain 1.12 handle ahead of key central bankers’ speeches.

 

 

 


09:06 GBP/USD flirting with session highs near 1.2730

The Sterling is posting moderate gains vs. the buck on Tuesday, lifting GBP/USD to the area of daily highs around 1.2730.

GBP/USD eyes on BoE, Brexit

Cable keeps the rally well and sound so far this week, advancing for the fifth consecutive session despite the effervescence in the domestic political scenario and amidst mixed headlines from the Brexit negotiations.

Against the backdrop of the current up trend, GBP should be under scrutiny today in light of the release of the BoE’s financial stability report (FSR) and subsequent press conference by Governor M.Carney.

Consensus among investors expect Carney to pour some cold water over expectations of potential tightening by the ‘Old Lady’ sooner than initially estimated, particularly following last week’s hawkish comments by A.Haldane.

In the data space, CBI’s survey is only due. Across the pond, US home prices tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller index are due seconded by CB’s consumer confidence and speeches by Chief J.Yellen, Philly Fed P.Harker (voter, hawkish) and Minneapolis Fed N.Kashkari (voter, dovish).

GBP/USD levels to consider

As of writing the pair is up 0.07% at 1.2732 and a breakout of 1.2759 (high Jun.26) would open the door to 1.2786 (20-day sma) and then 1.2832 (55-day sma). On the other hand, the next support aligns at 1.2640 (100-day sma) followed by 1.2587 (low Jun.21) and finally 1.2548 (200-day sma).


09:05 Canada: Mixed signals TD Economics

Those trying to time the next Bank of Canada move received mixed signals from Canada’s economic releases in the past week, according to Diana Petramala, Economist at TD Economics.

Key Quotes

“Retail sales in April started the second quarter off on a strong note, suggesting the continuation of strong economic momentum. But, then Friday’s weaker-than-anticipated consumer price report showed that inflation continued to decelerate into May. Most of the Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of inflation eased for a fifth straight month, and are well below the Bank’s 2% target. While the soft inflation report helped curb enthusiasm over the possibility of a July rate hike, there are still grounds to believe the Bank of Canada will begin raising interest rates in October.”

“Looking forward, a healthy pace of consumer spending is likely to continue to underpin robust economic momentum. While housing related items were at the top of household shopping lists, consumers have been spending on just about everything at a healthy rate – a trend that will likely continue through most of 2017. Households are still carrying a lot of debt, but the low interest rate environment has kept the carrying costs of that debt low, giving them some financial wiggle room to continue to support retail spending. Meanwhile, the strength in housing activity through the last quarter of 2016 and into early 2017 is likely to continue to boost spending on house-related items as those buyers renovate and furnish their homes. The slowdown in housing activity currently underway will likely not feed into a slower pace of retail spending until the end of this year and early next year.”

“Overall, the low inflation backdrop is likely to keep the Bank of Canada on hold through July’s rate announcement, but given that monetary policy acts with a long and variable lead, improving economic conditions are likely to give the central Bank motivation to start gradually raising rates in October of this year.”


09:02 USD/JPY surrenders early gains to 1-month highs, back below 112 mark

The USD/JPY pair struggled to sustain its move beyond 100-day SMA hurdle and has now surrenders all of its early gains to one-month high near 112.10 region.

The pair on Monday caught some strong buying interest and surged to its highest level since May 25 despite of the disappointing release of durable goods orders data from the US and a sharp reversal in the US equity markets, which tends to derive the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand.

   •  USD longs steady, JPY shorts edged lower - Rabobank

The pair struggled to build on previous session's strong up-move and retreated around 30-pips from session tops, to currently trade near 111.80 region, amid a mildly weaker tone around the key US Dollar Index

However, a modest up-tick in the US Treasury bond yields and a mildly positive sentiment around Japanese equity markets was seen lending some support and collaborated towards limiting any immediate sharp downslide for the major.

Later during the NA session, the release of CB Consumer Confidence Index would now be looked upon for some short-term trading impetus ahead of speeches by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and the Fed Chair Janet Yellen. 

   •  US: Consumer confidence may ebb - AmpGFX

Technical levels to watch

Omkar Godbole, Analyst and Editor at FXStreet writes: "Repeated rebound from 111.00 region established a higher bottom formation on the 4-hour chart. The subsequent inverse head and shoulder breakout has opened doors for 114.82 (target as per the measured height method). However, the 4-hour RSI is close to being overbought; hence the bullish move may run out of steam around 112.79 levels. On the downside, only a daily close below 111.00 would signal bullish invalidation."


08:59 USD longs steady, JPY shorts edged lower - Rabobank

According to IMM net speculators’ positioning as at 20 June, 2017, USD longs held steady, holding just above their late May levels which were their lowest levels since last Oct – ahead of the Trump win in the Presidential election, explains the research team at Rabobank. 

Key Quotes

“The relatively soft level in long positions reflects domestic political concerns and some disappointments in domestic economic data. The more hawkish than expected tone of the FOMC last week could lend some support in the next release.”

Bearish bets against the pound increased for a third week marking a clear break from the trend that prevailed for the previous six weeks. The weaker tone of GBP is a response to the Government’s failure to hold its majority at the June 8 general election. Opinions polls had been suggesting that the Labour opposition was gaining momentum ahead of the election. While this increases the likelihood of a more messy Brexit process, GBP has found some support on speculation that a ‘soft’ Brexit may now be more likely.”

For an eighth consecutive week, EUR longs have remained on their upward path. Macron’s success in the French parliamentary election has strengthened the better tone, although the dovish tone of the ECB at the June policy meeting could temper the bullish tone. EUR positions are at their strongest level since May 2011.”

JPY shorts edged lower but remained within recent ranges. The BoJ retained a dovish tone at its June policy meeting. Irrespective, changing demand for safe haven remains a primary influence. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Gulf region, political uncertainty in the US or further testing of nuclear missiles by N. Korea could offer support to the JPY going forward.”

CHF shorts dropped for a fourth consecutive week. The improvement in the Eurozone economy should over time reduce safe haven demand for the CHF. However, for now the CHF appears to be moving in the same direction as the EUR.”

CAD shorts dropped for a third week, in contrast to the twelve week trend that dominated the spring. Some hawkish comments from the BoC could lend support, but the outlook for price of oil remains a key influence. AUD positions held their position in negative territory despite better than expected Australian Q1 GDP growth data.”


08:53 US: Consumer confidence may ebb - AmpGFX

Today, in the US, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence report is released and analysts at Amplifying Global FX Capital suggest that we may be on the cusp of some correction in sentiment surveys. 

Key Quotes

“The Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey released on 16 June showed confidence slipping in June to a low since November last year.  The weekly Bloomberg consumer comfort index also slipped last week to a low since February.”

“Overall consumer sentiment remains at a high level.  However, we may be on the cusp of some correction in sentiment surveys.  This would not surprise in light of the slipping credibility in the Trump administration and capacity of Congress to pass key legislation on health, tax and infrastructure.”


08:50 FX option expires for June 27 NY cut

FX option expires for June 27 NY cut at 10:00 Easter Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

EUR/USD: $1.1100(E877mn), $1.1200-10(E500mn), $1.1230 35(E330mn), $1.1350(E405mn) 

- USD/JPY: Y110.28 ($500mn), Y111.50-53($318mn), Y112.00($412mn) 

- AUD/USD: $0.7300(A$595mn), $0.7600-05(A$533mn) 

- NZD/USD: $0.7040(NZ$232mn) 

- USD/CAD: C$1.3250($511mn) 

- EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8815-20(E534mn) 


08:29 USD/CAD placed at session tops, above mid-1.3200s

The USD/CAD pair built on overnight recovery move from 1.32 neighborhood and eroded majority of previous session's losses led by disappointing US durable goods orders data. 

Currently placed near session tops, around 1.3255-60 region, the Canadian Dollar is being weighed down by the US Commerce Department's statement on Tuesday to impose duties up to 30.88% on the softwood lumber exports from Canada.

   •  US Comm Dept.: Canadian softwood will face duties up to 30.88%

The pair moved higher despite of a subdued action around the greenback, with the key US Dollar Index consolidating in a range just above the 97.00 mark. Traders even shrugged off a modest up-tick in crude oil prices, which tends to underpin demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie.

Today's US economic docket features the release of Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, during early NA session. Investors focus, however, would remain glued to key speeches by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and the Fed Chair Janet Yellen, which would be looked upon for clues over the timing of next Fed rate-hike action and eventually might help determine the pair's next leg of directional move.

   •  US consumer confidence and Fed speak amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

Technical levels to watch

A strong follow through buying interest beyond 1.3265-70 region has the potential to lift the pair further towards the 1.3300 handle en-route its next major hurdle near 1.3335-40 area.

On the downside, 1.3215-10 region remains immediate strong support to defend, which if broken is likely to accelerate the slide back towards 4-month lows support near 1.3165 level.


08:25 UK: FSR in focus today - TDS

The Bank of England releases its Financial Stability Report, which is followed by a press conference by Governor Carney at 11am BST and are going to be the key economic event for the UK markets, according to the analysts at TDS.

Key Quotes

“While it’s unlikely we’ll hear much on the monetary policy front, Governor Carney may take the chance to push back against the two hawkish MPC speeches last week. The CBI retail sales index for June is released.”


08:22 US consumer confidence and Fed speak amongst market movers today Danske Bank

Today is another quiet day in terms of data releases with the Fed's Williams (non-voter, neutral) speaking this morning and later today it is time for US consumer confidence for June will be the only key events, suggests analysis team at Danske Bank.

Key Quotes

“We look for a small decline in line with what we have seen in the consumer survey from University of Michigan. The post-Trump consumer euphoria seems to have faded a bit. Tonight, more Fed speakers will be available (Kashkari and Harker).”


08:11 EUR/USD looks to regain 1.1200 ahead of Draghi, Yellen

Having found some support near 1.1175 region, the EUR/USD pair has embarked upon a minor-recovery mode, as the bulls look to regain 1.12 handle ahead of key central bankers’ speeches.

EUR/USD: Recovery appears limited on policy divergence

The spot is seen consolidating the Asian recovery as we progress towards the European morning bells, although remains in the upper bound of today’s trading range. The greenback retraces late-Monday’s rebound against most of its major peers, as the bulls turn defensive ahead of the crucial US consumer confidence data and Fed Chair Yellen’s speech.

Despite the upbeat tone seen around the EUR/USD pair, investors remain wary whether the spot would extend the recovery above 1.12 handle, as monetary policy divergence between the ECB and Fed remains on top of the mind ahead of the speeches by the ECB President Draghi and Fed Chief Yellen.

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair maintains the bid tone as solid German IFO surveys continue to underpin the Euro, while downbeat US durable goods data add to the negative bias seen around the buck.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet: “Technically, the pair has faltered once again around 1.1210/20, having been rejected from the area multiple times since June 14th. To the downside, a major Fibonacci support stands around 1.1120 while a relevant low comes at 1.1109, the price to break lower to confirm further slides ahead.”


08:07 China: Growth has passed its peak - Rabobank

Michael Every, Senior Asia-Pacific Strategist at Rabobank, points out that two leading PMI-style measures of Chinese growth are showing that growth is past its peak.

Key Quotes

“That is something we have been flagging as likely to occur soon- with an SME confidence index at its lowest in 16 months, while still far from poor at 54.7, and the ‘SpaceKnow China Satellite Manufacturing Index’ (yes, it’s a thing now) at 49.6.”

“On the other hand, Chinese sales managers are feeling more German(e) about downside risks, with their monthly survey of sentiment at 52.5, a 20-month high.”


07:48 AUD/USD pops above 0.7600 briefly, RBAs Debelle eyed

The bulls extended their control in Asia, having taken AUD/USD further northwards in a bid to print fresh six-day tops just ahead of 0.76 handle.

AUD/USD trades above all major DMAs

The spot is on a rising trend so far this week, extending Friday’s solid rebound, in response to a steady recovery in oil prices and broad based US dollar softness. Additionally, stronger China’s industrial profits data for May also added to the renewed bullish momentum seen in the major.

However, over the last hours, the Aussie struggles to extend the break above 0.76 handle, as mixed Asian equities combined with weaker copper and oil prices weigh negatively on the higher-yielding commodity currency.

Attention now turns towards the RBA Assistant Governor Debelle’s speech due out in the European session for fresh light on the RBA’s monetary policy approach going forward. Also, the US dataflow followed by Fed Chair Yellen’s speech will also hog the limelight later today.

AUD/USD Levels to watch   

At 0.7601, the pair finds the immediate resistance at 0.7630-40 (key resistances) above which gains could be extended to the next hurdle located 0.7680 (Mar 30 high) and 0.7700 (zero figure). On the flip side, the immediate support is located at 0.7550 (psychological levels). Selling pressure is likely to intensify below the last, dragging the Aussie to 0.7533 (100-DMA) and below that 0.7509/0.7497 (200-DMA/ Jun 7 low).

 


07:48 NZ: Trade surplus down to NZD103m - Rabobank

Today we saw NZ trade data, where exports did well but imports surged, taking the trade surplus down to just NZD103m from a prior NZD536m, and vastly below to NZD419m expected, notes Michael Every, Senior Asia-Pacific Strategist at Rabobank.

Key Quotes

“On a 12-month rolling basis that saw the deficit blow out to –NZD3,754m from –NZD3,514m. Not that the much-mentioned NZD has reacted much to the news.”


07:43 TWD: July weakness on dividend payment season? ANZ

The New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) is the best performing Asian currency so far this year, but the month of July tends to see the TWD weaken due to dividend repatriation flows, explains Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research at ANZ.

Key Quotes

The 6.3% appreciation in the TWD for the year-todate makes it the best performing Asian currency. TWD’s appreciation is on par with the EUR, which is the best performing G10 currency so far this year. Strength in the TWD has been primarily driven by strong foreign inflows into the Taiwan equity market, which the Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBC) noted in their monetary policy statement last week. Equity inflows totalled USD8.9bn over the first half of 2017, an increase of 42% over the same period last year. A strong recovery in Taiwan’s export performance and a positive risk environment in global markets underpinned the equity flows.”

“However, we see the TWD unwinding some of its gains in the month ahead due to: (1) dividend repatriation flows, and (2) equity inflows easing off due to stretched valuations and waning growth momentum.”

Payout Time

There is a very distinct seasonal pattern for TWD in the month of July. Looking at the period from 2000 to 2016, we note that the TWD tends to weaken against all G10 and Asian currencies with regular consistency. The average TWD decline against the IDR is the largest at 1.4%. However, the result is skewed by the large rally in IDR in July 2001. In terms of frequency, TWD has a strong tendency to weaken against the KRW and SGD in July, having done so in 14 out of the last 17 years.”

“The reason behind TWD weakness in July is due to the repatriation of dividend payments. Companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange usually start to go exdate starting from June and peaking in July, with dividends largely paid out in July and August.”

“In the absence of further upward growth momentum, it is likely that we will see an easing off in foreign equity inflows over the coming months. USD/TWD has recently moved in line with where the TWSE is trading. A slowdown in equity inflows, or even some outflows on the back of profit taking, will see the TWD weakening, particularly with the seasonal dividend repatriation flows. Hence, we can expect some of the gap between the TWD’s outperformance against the rest of the Asian currencies to narrow in the coming month.”


07:23 US: Durable goods orders for May fell 1.1% m-o-m, below expectations - Nomura

The US topline durable goods orders for May fell 1.1% m-o-m, below expectations (Nomura: -0.1%, Consensus: -0.6%), driven by a sharp 3.4% decline in transportation equipment orders.

Key Quotes

“The prior month was revised down to a 0.9% decline from a 0.8% decline. Within transportation components, auto and parts orders increased 1.2% following a 0.5% increase in April, suggesting that autos production may not slow quickly amid flagging consumer vehicle sales. Civilian aircraft orders dropped 11.7%, exacerbating a decline in topline orders. Excluding volatile transportation components, durable goods orders were mixed, increasing only moderately by 0.1% (Nomura: -0.5%, Consensus: 0.4%), after a 0.5% decline in the previous month.”

“Core capital goods shipments, a concurrent indicator of manufacturing activity and a component for GDP accounting, fell 0.2% after a modest increase of 0.1%. While month-to-month fluctuations can be somewhat volatile, recent weak readings in this measure increase the risk of seeing a less of a boost from business investment in Q2.”

GDP tracking update: The weaker-than-expected core shipments, a proxy of business equipment investment, led us to revise down our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to 2.6% q-o-q saar from 2.7%. Among a number of different forecasters such as Atlanta Fed’s GDP Nowcast and Macroeconomic Advisers, equipment investment estimates for Q2 range from a 2.3% decline to a 2.1% increase. However, the range of these estimates is well-below the 7.1% increase in Q1, indicating some slowdown in equipment investment growth.”


07:03 Chinas Li: Will not resort to massive stimulus measures

Additional headlines hitting the wires from the Chinese PM Li’s speech delivered during the opening ceremony of "Summer Davos" Forum in Dalian.

Key Points:

China will keep macro-policies stable, implement proactive fiscal policy, prudent monetary policy

Will not resort to massive stimulus measures

China will push structural supply-side reforms, cut taxes, fees for firms


07:00 Quarterly Flow of Funds report: BOJ keeps snapping up bonds

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) published its quarterly Flow of Funds report earlier this Tuesday, highlighting that the Japanese central bank’s pace of buying in the government debt has slowed dramatically since the introduction of yield-curve control in September 2016, Bloomberg reports.

Key Points:

The central bank owned 39.5 percent of Japan’s bonds and treasury bills, up from 13.1 percent when Haruhiko Kuroda took over as governor in March 2013

BOJ says held 39.46% of JGBs end-Q1

Foreign investors 10.75% flow of funds report shows household assets rise 2.7pct y/y

Today’s data shows the value of the debt at the current market price, to allow a comparison of what the BOJ owns with what banks, pensions funds and others possess.


06:44 Chinas Li: Not easy for China to maintain medium to high-speed economic growth rates

More comments hitting the wires from the Chinese Premier Li, as he addresses Chinese the opening ceremony of "Summer Davos" Forum in Dalian.

Headlines:

China's economy maintains steady, improving momentum in Q2

Domestic demand has become a key pillar for China's economy

China's economy still faces many challenges

China fully capable to achieve full-year growth target

China will continue to push capacity cuts in steel, coal sectors

China will ease market access for services, industrial sectors

Will make it easier for foreign firms to register new companies in China

No restriction on foreign firms repatriating profits from China

China is able to control systemic risks in its economy

China is fully capable to control various risks, keep economic growth within reasonable range

 


06:34 EUR/USD risks tilt to the downside on Draghi-Yellen divergence

The EUR/USD pair rose to a high of 1.1219 in the North American session following the release of the dismal US data before ECB’s Draghi poured cold water on expectations of QE taper and pushed the spot lower to 1.1182 levels. The currency pair traded around 1.1185 levels in Asia.

ECB President Draghi speech is scheduled at 8:00 GMT today. The central bank head is likely to reiterate the positives of lower rates and once again squash hopes of reduction in the monetary easing.

Focus on Yellen speech

Fed Chair Yellen is set to deliver a speech in Europe on Tuesday. Traders expect her to defend the outlook for three rate hikes this year, despite the deterioration in the economy.

Fed’s hawkish rate hike earlier this month did catch markets off guard, but the subsequent rally in the USD has been very slow and the treasury yield curve continued to flatten. Moreover, the action in the treasuries suggests the bond traders are not buying the Fed’s hawkish view.

Nevertheless, hawkish comments from Yellen today would not only underscore the growing divergence between the Fed and the ECB, but would also add credence to BIS’ argument that central banks should go ahead with the great unwind (undo what has not worked). Thus, EUR/USD may feel the pull of the gravity.

On the other hand, the dovish surprise from Yellen may push EUR/USD back above the rising trend line (sloping upwards from Apr 17 low and May 11 low).

EUR/USD Technical Levels

Last two weekly candles were Doji. The first one had a long upper shadow (bullish exhaustion), while the second one was a long legged one (dip demand/bearish exhaustion). The spot is thus trading in a no man’s land - range of 1.1296 (high of the weekly candle with a long upper shadow) - 1.1119 (low of last week’s Doji candle). The weekly chart also shows repeated failure at 1.1284 (161.8% Fib expansion of Dec low - Jan high - Feb low).

A daily close above 1.1296 would open doors for 1.1366 (Aug 2016 high) and 1.1428 (June 2016 high). On the lower side, a daily close below 1.1119 could yield a sell-off to 1.1074 (50-DMA) and 1.10 (zero figure).

 


06:32 GBP/USD: A phase of consolidation ahead of BOE FSR, Carney

The GBP/USD pair found buyers near 1.2710 levels in the overnight trades, and since then has entered a phase of downside consolidation, as investors await the release of BOE’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) and Governor Carney’s speech for the next direction.

GBP/USD capped below daily pivot at 1.2729

The subdued trading activity seen behind cable is mainly driven by increased cautiousness, as investors remain wary over the outcome of the BOE FSR report on the financial markets, in the wake of the UK election and Brexit uncertainty.

Moreover, mixed sentiment prevalent around the Asian markets, with investors fearing that the Fed may continue with its policy normalization plans, as suggested by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) report released over the weekend.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is reversing yesterday’s late-rebound, backed by Trump administration’s victory over the travel ban, which helps keep the spot underpinned. Also, the pound remains buoyed after yesterday’s reports of the UK May’s Conservatives Party having struck a deal with the DUP to form a minority government.

Looking ahead, the immediate focus remains on the BOE FSR and Carney’s speech, which will be followed by the CBI realized sales data during the European session. Meanwhile, the US docket also remains eventful, with the CB consumer confidence data and speeches by the FOMC officials Harker and Yellen.

GBP/USD levels to consider             

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet offers key technical levels for the spot: “Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that intraday slides were contained by buying interest around a bullish 20 SMA, now around 1.2705 the immediate support, whilst the Momentum indicator remains directionless within positive territory, and the RSI retreats, currently around 52, overall suggesting the pair can end its rallying streak this Tuesday. Support levels: 1.2705 1.2665 1.2635 Resistance levels: 1.2760 1.2800 1.2840.”


06:16 Chinas Li: Momentum of world economic recovery insufficient

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang crossed the wires last minutes, via Reuters/ Bloomberg, expressing his take on the economy.

Key Headlines:

Anti-globalisation voices emerging

World political risks on the rise

Momentum of world economic recovery insufficient

Economic growth needs to ensure fairness, sustainability

Limiting trade freedom leads to lack of fairness

China will fulfil its promises on tackling climate change

China maintained stable growth as its more inclusive

China prioritises employment in economic growth, aims for relatively full employment


05:46 Brent oil - Technical correction gathers pace, eyes US inventories data

The technical correction in oil prices gathered pace, with Brent contract now attempting a bullish break of the falling channel. 

The front month contract was last seen trading around 45.90/barrel. Prices jumped to a high of $46.19 on Monday after reports hit the wires that Saudi Arabian crude export loadings in April had dropped materially. Saudi exports to US have dropped below one million barrels per day for the first time since last November.

However, the sentiment still remains bearish as the glut still persists and the market isn’t likely to rebalance anytime soon. Oil traders await the weekly US inventory data release. Markets are expecting a 4.5 million drop in oil supply and a 3 million drop in the gasoline inventories. 

Brent Technical Levels

The 4-hour chart shows the prices are attempting a bullish break of the falling channel. The RSI has turned bullish and is sloping upwards, pointing to scope for further gains in oil prices. A break above $46.19 (previous day’s high) would expose $46.68 (May 5 low) and $47.00 (zero levels). On the other hand, a break below $45.43 (June 20 low) would open doors for $45.01 (previous day’s low) and $44.34 (June 21 low). 


05:33 2017 Iron-ore forecast cut 15% to USD 63/ton Morgan Stanley

In its latest note published on Tuesday, the analysts at Morgan Stanley, the US investment bank, slashed the price-forecasts for iron-ore for this year.

Key Details:

Iron ore Q3 forecast cut 23% to USD 50/ton

2017 forecast cut 15% to USD 63/ton

The view downgrade by Morgan Stanley can be considered a negative input for the resource-linked AUD.


05:24 Irans largest oil terminal boosts capacity to 8 million bpd

Oilprice.com reported weekend’s comments by Pirouz Mousavi, the managing director of the Iranian Oil Terminals Company (IOTC), late-Monday, citing that the Kharg oil terminal in Iran has increased its crude oil loading capacity to 8 million barrels per day (bpd).

According to official data quoted by Iranian economic daily Financial Tribune, Iran’s exports are currently more than 2 million bpd of crude oil, plus another 600,000-700,000 bpd of condensates.

The Kharg oil terminal crude loadings account for 95% of Iran’s total crude oil exports, Mousavi added. 

Meanwhile, both crude benchmarks trade steady, with WTI around $ 43.50, while Brent keeps $ 46 mark.


05:14 NZD/USD remains capped below 0.7300 on China industrial profits

Despite solid Chinese industrial profits data release, the rebound in NZD/USD remains capped just below 0.73 handle, as poor NZ trade figures combined with latest headlines from White House weigh.

NZD/USD: Risk-on falters?

The spot is seen struggling hard to regain the bids over the last hours, but in vain, as resurgent USD demand across the board amid higher treasury yields limit the recovery.

The USD index continues to keep its range around 97.15 levels, while shorter duration T-yields lead across the curve, in the wake of the latest BIS, which suggested that the Fed should remain on track with tightening the monetary policy this year.

More so, latest statement published by the White House on potential preparations for chemical weapons attack in Syria, also keeps a lid on the prices. However, the recovery mode remains intact amid upbeat Chinese industrial profits data and better appetite for risk assets. China’s industrial profits increase 16.7% in May

Earlier on the day, the Kiwi fell sharply to 0.7276 levels, after the NZ trade data showed a massive shrink in the country’s trade surplus on the back much higher than expected rise in the imports.

All eyes now remain on a fresh batch of the US macro releases and Fedspeaks, including Fed Chair Yellen’s speech, due on the cards later today.

NZD/USD Levels to consider                                                                              

NZD/USD managed to take-out 5-DMA at 0.7282 upside target, with a test of 0.7300 on the cards. Beyond which 0.7323 (Jun 14 high) will be on sight. To the downside, 0.7200 guards 0.7145 and a break back below 0.7080/90 are key near-term downside areas.


05:09 USD/JPY jumps to one-month high of 112.07, is this a BIS rally?

The Dollar-Yen pair jumped to a one-month high of 112.07, ignoring the weak US data and flatter yield curve as investors fear the Fed may continue to push forward with policy normalization as suggested by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

The key measures of the treasury yield curve dropped to the lowest since 2007 on Monday as investors switched to the long-end of the curve following the release of the dismal US durable goods orders data and regional manufacturing data.

The dollar did suffer minor losses, but quickly regained poise, indicating the investors do not see Fed deviating from its policy normalization plans despite weak data. Investors also fear that Fed Chair Yellen would reiterate her hawkish stance last this week.

BIS asks central banks to go ahead with the great unwind

Over the weekend, the BIS asked major central banks to go ahead with the policy normalization, given the global economy looks stable, while the ultra easy policy has largely failed to boost inflation. The Fed’s decision to maintain the outlook for three rate hikes earlier this month also suggests the central bank is no longer as data dependent as it used to be.

USD/JPY Technical Levels

The spot was last seen trading around 111.95 levels. A break above 112.53 (38.2% Fib R of Dec high - Apr low) would open up upside towards 112.60 (Jan 17 low) and 113.00 (zero levels). On the downside, breach of support at 111.81 (session low) would expose 111.34 (50-DMA) and 111.00 (zero levels).

 


05:06 USD/RUB Bulls are losing momentum

USD/RUB sellers stood their ground and buyers retreated in recent sessions as MACD (26, 12, 9) has fallen off below its median line.

On a 4hr chart, this technical condition may be taken by many trend-following traders as a trigger to liquidate long positions.

The fact that the MACD hasn't been under zero for at least one week of trading, reinforces the argument that room for further USD/RUB depreciation is there.

05:02 USD/HUF momentum switched to negative

Increased downward momentum in the USD/HUF has brought the 4hr MACD to step in the red zone.

This technical condition would certainly not be of much help if the MACD hasn't been under zero for at least one week of trading. This reinforces the argument that room for further USD/HUF depreciation is there.

The signal may be either taken by trend-following traders as a trigger to liquidate long positions as by potential sellers to prepare their short commitments.

04:57 White House: US has Iidentified potential preparations for chemical weapons attack in Syria

Reuters out with the latest statement issued by the US White House last minutes, noting that the US has identified potential preparations for another chemical weapons attack by Syrian government.

Key Details:

Preparations similar to those made before April 4 chemical weapons attack

US says if Syria's Assad conducts another attack using chemical weapons, "He and his military will pay a heavy price" 


04:50 Chinas industrial profits increase 16.7% in May

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported the latest Chinese industrial profits data for the month of May, noting that the industrial profits climbed 16.7% y/y last month versus +14% y/y seen last.

Industrial profits surged 22.7% in the first five months, according to the bureau.
 


04:46 Nikkei approaching two-year highs as Yen weakens

The Japanese stock markets remain well bid on the back of Yen weakness with the benchmark index eyeing fresh two-year highs above 20,318 levels. 

The index was last trading at 0.32% or 64 points higher on the day around 20,217.50 levels. A weaker Yen is lifting the exporter issues. 

The USD/JPY pair rose to 111.94 on Monday despite the weak US durable goods and regional manufacturing data and extended gains to 112.07 (highest since May 24).

The sentiment remains cautious in the markets outside Japan. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is down 0.40%, while South Korea’s Kospi is flat lined. 


04:38 US Comm Dept.: Canadian softwood will face duties up to 30.88%

The US Commerce Department came out with a statement earlier today, via Reuters, announcing duties on the softwood lumber exports from Canada.

Key Points:

Canadian softwood will face duties up to 30.88%

This is due to finding of dumping and prior finding of subsidies

A final ruling will come on September 7th


04:16 PBOC sets the Yuan reference rate at 6.8292

People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8292 vs. Monday's fix of 6.8220.

The central bank has decided to skip the Open Market Operations (OMO). 


04:06 Fed s Williams and Dudley hinted to continue normalising policy - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ explained that over the past 24 hours, the Fed’s Williams and Dudley, again both hinted at a desire to continue normalising policy. 

Key Quotes:

"Williams noted that “some special transitory factors have been pulling inflation down... But with some of these factors now waning, and with the economy doing well, I expect we’ll reach our 2% goal sometime next year.” 

Dudley stated that “Monetary policymakers need to take the evolution of financial conditions into consideration [and] when financial conditions ease – as has been the case recently – this can provide additional impetus for the decision to continue to remove monetary policy accommodation.” 

So at least with regards to these senior Fed members, the message has not changed despite recent data hiccups. All eyes will be on Yellen who speaks tomorrow morning (NZT)."


04:05 US treasury yield curve flattens further, diff between 10-yr & 2-yr yield hits 10-month low

US treasury yield curve flattened further after the data released in the US on Monday showed the durable goods orders dropped 1.1% in May. Manufacturing activity in the Chicago and Dallas regions also fell short of expectations.

The weak data saw investors move into the long end of the treasury yield curve. Thus, the difference between the 10-year yield and the 2-year yield fell to a 10-month low of 0.758 basis points.  

The difference between the 5-year yield and the 30-year yield dropped to 93.1 basis points, the flattest since 2007.

Despite the flattening of the yield curve, the USD remains well bid, especially against the Japanese Yen as investors fear the Fed may ignore weak data and proceed with policy normalization as suggested by the BIS over the weekend.


03:45 AUD/JPY is just short of a 5-day high, eye RBAs Debelle speech

AUD/JPY is just a few pips short of fresh 5-day highs above 84.91 (previous day’s high). The immediate focus is on the speech from RBA’s Assistant Governor Debelle, scheduled at 8:30 GMT.

Nears key trend line hurdle

The trend line sloping downwards from Feb 16 high and Mar 16 high is seen offering resistance around 85.00 levels. The cross remains on the front foot this Tuesday morning in Asia, largely due to the weakness in the Japanese Yen. The 10-year Australian government bond yield is down 1.3 basis points, suggesting the markets do not expect Debelle to drop any hawkish events.

The marginal strength seen in Asia offers little clues regarding the broader market sentiment. Moreover, the overbought RSI conditions on the 1-hour and 4-hour chart might make it hard for the JPY bears to push the cross beyond the critical trend line hurdle.

AUD/JPY Technical Levels

An hourly close above 85.00 (zero figure + trend line hurdle) would open up upside towards 85.24 (Feb 7 low) and 85.77 (Mar 31 high). On the downside, breach of support at 84.52 (May 16 high) could yield a pull back to 84.28 (10-DMA) and 84.00 (zero levels).

 


03:44 USD/CNY fix projection: 6.8365 - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered their projections for the USD/CNY fix.

Key Quotes:

"Our model1 projects the fix to be 127 pips higher than the previous fix (6.8365 from 6.8238) and 22 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close of 6.8387. The basket implied change is 26 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close (6.8361 from 6.8387)."


03:41 USD/JPY: bulls looking for a break of 112 resistance

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 111.93, up 0.07% on the day, having posted a daily high at 111.97 and low at 111.82.

USD/JPY has been a choppy open in a tight ten pip range but maintains the better bid tone from overnight's resurgence in the greenback. The US dollar was sold off on the back of the disappointments in the US data (Q1 GDP expectations will be trimmed on that) but was then in demand again across the board and despite lower yields. The DXY recovered two hours later in the US session to end the day up 0.2%.

"US 10yr Treasury yields fell from 2.16% to 2.12%, while 2yr yields fell from 1.35% to 1.33%. Fed fund futures continued to price the chance of a December rate hike at around 45%," noted analysts at Westpac.

USD/JPY levels

The 4 hours chart presents a positive tone, according to Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. "Technical indicators have managed to bounce after nearing their mid-lines, whilst the price remains above its 100 and 200 SMAs, both lacking directional strength. Nevertheless, the pair needs to break above 112.00, the 38.2% retracement of the latest bullish run to be able to post a more sustainable advance."


03:15 UK consumer confidence tanks on Mays election debacle- YouGov

An index of consumer confidence produced by polling firm YouGov tanked to a level last seen immediately after last year’s Brexit vote victory. 

UK economy dependent on exports

Douglas McWilliams, deputy chairman at the Centre for Economics and Business Research which produces the index with YouGov said, “Our preliminary assessment is that economic growth will fall sharply over the coming months and the country will only be saved from recession by strong international trade”. 

YouGov said the consumers are already feeling the pinch of weaker real wage growth, but the real cause for alarm will be the cooling of the property market, as this is one of the key things that has propped up consumer confidence over the past few years. 


03:03 Central Bank s desire to unwind policy stimulus - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ explained that while most notable in the US, the desire to unwind policy stimulus appears to be becoming a wider theme of late. 

Key Quotes:

"Despite elevated levels of policy uncertainty, patchy data and inflation question marks, there have been hints along these lines from the likes of the BoE, ECB and BoC too."

"Perhaps the latest annual report from the BIS sums up why that is the case, noting that “Even if inflation does not rise, keeping interest rates too low for long could raise financial stability and macroeconomic risks further down the road, as debt continues to pile up and risk-taking in financial markets gathers steam... How policymakers address these trade-offs will be critical for the prospects of a sustainable expansion.”"


02:36 Impact on Japanese inflation should yen appreciation versus USD? - Nomura

 Analysts at Nomura explained the likely impact on inflation in the event of unexpected yen appreciation versus USD.

Key Quotes:

"As the US moves to normalize monetary policy, our scenario for the Japanese economy assumes that the yen will continue to depreciate against the US dollar as a result of the widening gap between interest rates in the US and Japan.

Recently, however, we see signs of a possible slowdown in the pace of US monetary tightening, including weakness in US inflation.

A shift to yen appreciation would likely exert downward pressure on Japan's inflation rate."


02:31 AUD/USD: getting above 0.7635/42 is key for the bulls

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7582, down -0.04% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7588 and low at 0.7580.

Forex today: dollar better bid despite lower yields

AUD/USD has been drifting to the downside from 0.7599 overnight highs with a resurgence in the greenback and despite the data disappointments from the US session. However, for the day ahead, analysts at Westpac argue that there is potential to push beyond 0.7600 to 0.7635.

AUD/USD 1-3 month: 

The analysts at Westpac, on a longer term outlook, explained that the resilience of US equity markets to the distractions of the Trump administration is a positive backdrop for risk-sensitive AUD. "Chinese markets are of course less helpful as the deleveraging push continues, but the uptrend in steel prices suggests potential for recovery in iron ore prices. The rebound in Australian job creation keeps RBA rate cut talk at bay. But multi-month, we expect the ongoing rise in US interest rates to chip away at AUD/USD, leaving it around 0.73 by Q3."

AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD has stabilised at mid-channel having eased back in the middle recently, however, analysts at Commerzbank suggest that, very near term, we are likely to see a rebound from the 200-day ma at 0.7530:

"Above 0.7635/52 will target the top of the triangle at 0.7712. The market is expected to find support at the 200-day ma at 0.7530 and the 55-day ma at 0.7494. Longer term outlook is neutral in the converging range: It is sidelined within the 0.7342-0.7712 limits. Where are we wrong? Above 0.7635/42 should trigger a move to the top of the triangle at 0.7712. Below the 55-day ma targets the bottom of the triangle at 0.7342."


01:50 Durable goods orders disappointments broken down - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a breakdown of the US from overnight.

Key Quotes:

"Durable goods orders: Topline durable goods orders for May fell 1.1% m-o-m, below expectations (Nomura: -0.1%, Consensus: -0.6%), driven by a sharp 3.4% decline in transportation equipment orders. The prior month was revised down to a 0.9% decline from a 0.8% decline. Within transportation components, auto and parts orders increased 1.2% following a 0.5% increase in April, suggesting that autos production may not slow quickly amid flagging consumer vehicle sales. Civilian aircraft orders dropped 11.7%, exacerbating a decline in topline orders. Excluding volatile transportation components, durable goods orders were mixed, increasing only moderately by 0.1% (Nomura: -0.5%, Consensus: 0.4%), after a 0.5% decline in the previous month. Core capital goods shipments, a concurrent indicator of manufacturing activity and a component for GDP accounting, fell 0.2% after a modest increase of 0.1%. While month-to-month fluctuations can be somewhat volatile, recent weak readings in this measure increase the risk of seeing a less of a boost from business investment in Q2. 

GDP tracking update:

The weaker-than-expected core shipments, a proxy of business equipment investment, led us to revise down our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to 2.6% q-o-q saar from 2.7%. Among a number of different forecasters such as Atlanta Fed’s GDP Nowcast and Macroeconomic Advisers, equipment investment estimates for Q2 range from a 2.3% decline to a 2.1% increase. However, the range of these estimates is well-below the 7.1% increase in Q1, indicating some slowdown in equipment investment growth."


01:49 New Zealand Trade Balance (MoM) below forecasts ($420M) in May: Actual ($130M)


01:46 New Zealand Trade Balance (YoY) came in at $-3.75B, below expectations ($-3.398B) in May


01:46 New Zealand Exports came in at $4.95B, above expectations ($4.93B) in May


01:46 New Zealand Imports registered at $4.85B above expectations ($4.48B) in May


01:38 AUD/NZD: what s the outlook? - Westpac

Currently, AUD/NZD is trading at 1.0411, up 0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0418 and low at 1.0401.Analysts at Westpac offered their outlook for the cross and antipodean rates.

Key Quotes:

AUD/NZD 1 day: Yesterday’s technical reversal argues for an extension of this rebound to 1.0425+.

AUD/NZD 1-3 month: Higher towards 1.09. The cross remains below fair value estimates implied by interest rates, commodity prices and risk sentiment, although it is closing the gap. There’s potential for a rebound in iron ore prices this year, given high steel prices (24 May).

AU swap yields 1 day: The 3yr should open around 1.94%, the 10yr around 2.63%.

AU swap yields 1-3 month: Our RBA outlook (on hold for some time) is anchoring front end valuations. We expect 3yr swap rates to remain in a 1.8% to 2.3% range, with core inflation still below 2%. (28 May)

NZ swap yields 1 day: NZ 2yr swap rates should open unchanged at 2.21%, the 10yr down 1bp at 3.13%.

NZ swap yields 1-3 month: The RBNZ has signalled the next cycle – a tightening one – will not start until the end of 2019. That will anchor the short end, although markets will not abandon their expectations for tightening as early as mid-2018 which means occasional spikes in the 2yr will be likely. A 2yr swap range of 2.10%-2.60% is expected. The long end will continue to follow US yields, which we expect to rise. That means the curve steepening trend should continue. (15 May)


01:22 NZD/USD: to penetrate the 0.73 handle again?

Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7284, down -0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7291 and low at 0.7284.

NZD/USD is awaiting the trade balance coming up within the hour and has been on the backfoot since being capped at 0.7310 in the US session. Depending on the data, on a positive surprise, there is potential to test the June high of 0.7320, suggested by analysts at Westpac.

Forex today: dollar better bid despite lower yields

 NZD/USD 1-3 month:  

The analysts at Westpac explained that the Fed’s tightening cycle plus US fiscal expansion should eventually reassert upside pressure on US interest rates and the US dollar, pushing NZD/USD below 0.6800 by year end. "US factors should outweigh local factors which are mostly supportive."

NZD/USD levels

NZD/USD managed a score through the 0.7280 level again but fell shy of the recent 0.7318 high. On a continuation of the bid, there is scope for 0.7374 being the high for 2017. To the downside, 0.7250/80 area guards 0.7200 guards 0.7145 and a break back below 0.7080/90 are key near-term downside areas. On the wide, the 0.7375 YTD highs are a key target to the upside and to the downside, a break below 0.7080/00 opens 0.6970.


01:02 U.S. President Trump: Important barriers to U.S. Trade with India will be removed

During a joint press conference with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra, U.S. President Trump stated that he looks forward to creating a trading relationship with India that is reciprocal.

Key headlines from Trump (via Reuters):

  • India has a "true friend" in the White House
  • Says relationship with India has never been stronger, never been better
  • He and Indian PM Modi are "World leaders in social media"
  • Important barriers to U.S. Trade with India be removed
  • Security partnership with india is incredibly important
  • Future of U.S.-india partnership has never looked brighter

Key headlines from Modi (via Reuters):

  • U.S., India have robust strategic partnership
  • Says he and Trump agreed to enhance cooperation in fighting terrorism
  • Talks with Trump were very successful, very fruitful
  • Says he invited Trump to visit India

 


00:25 Market wrap: dollar recovers despite poor data - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac offered a market wrap.

Key Quotes:

"Global market sentiment: US interest rates fell on disappointing US durable goods data. The USD also responded negatively but more than recovered later on.

Interest rates: US 10yr treasury yields fell from 2.16% to 2.12%, while 2yr yields fell from 1.35% to 1.33%. Fed fund futures continued to price the chance of a December rate hike at around 45%.

Currencies: The US dollar index initially fell sharply in response to the weak durable goods orders data, but started recovering two hours later to end the day up 0.2%. EUR initially bounced from 1.1172 to 1.1220 before retracing to 1.1176. USD/JPY initially fell from 111.70 to 111.36 before rebounding to 111.95. The underperforming yen appears to have led the rebound. AUD jumped from 0.7568 to 0.7599 but later retraced to 0.7583. NZD similarly jumped from 0.7262 to 0.7311 before retracing to 0.7287. AUD/NZD consolidated between 1.0384 and 1.0425.

Economic Wrap

US durable goods orders were weaker than expected, falling 1.1% in May (-0.6% expected) and the prior month was revised down a touch. Core capital goods orders and core capital goods shipments were also both weaker than expected, both down 0.2% (+0.4% gain expected). Q1 GDP expectations will be trimmed on this."


00:02 South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index: 111.1 (June) vs 108


Back to Traders' Board


Filter News by pairs:

EUR icon USD icon
GBP icon USD icon
USD icon CHF icon
AUS icon USD icon
NZD icon USD icon
USD icon CAD icon
USD icon JPY icon
EUR icon GBP icon
GBP icon JPY icon
GOLD icon

Data source: FX Street
Disclaimer:This material is provided by FXStreet as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information presented here.

tools